This serves as a recap for myself and is not to be viewed as any kind of trade suggestion. All views expressed are my own.
This past week was reasonably boring with little action but back and forth chops. Price has been trading around the 6300 prior ATH level on a back adjusted standpoint. EMA on the daily is closing in, potentially completing the test without needing a breakdown.
Last week we had the 7/9 tariff deadline which got extended. A few letters were sent and tariffs set but the market in general shrugged those off as TACO appears to be still on the table.
We are heading into earnings season starting this week with banks and financials. We also have inflation numbers that will be coming in tomorrow and Wednesday. Thursday will have retail sales while Friday UMich sentiments.
Also last week there were rumors of Powell getting sacked or retiring. There were also differing views among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Some officials and other politicians appear to be more vocally in support of cutting rates, in a potential bid to take Powell’s job.
Notably, on Friday, BTC, gold and silver all had relatively large gains, which I would say could be the result of the combination of potentially earlier or more rate cuts and inflation impact of tariffs and spending bills.
Right now I’d say the market is waiting on to see if the earnings are still coming in nicely. I read on Bloomberg that the expectation is generally low for the this quarter. If earnings came in as expected or better then we could easily continue the rally. After all, if you’d think that the only way for the US to solve the debt problem is to somehow inflate it away, you’d probably want to buy shares in some of the most profitable companies in the world.
Additionally, if the inflation number still came in somewhat reasonable on an anchored basis, then rate cuts could resume, which would be good for assets in general.
If, however, inflation came in hot, or if the earnings are worse than even the modest anticipations, or if some cracks of labor market and the economy starts to show, then equities could easily take a turn for the worse here given the huge rally from the low.
The Ephemeral Tourist
July 14th. 2025 @ 11:20pm CST
The Ephemeral Tourist 