I see no light at the end of this particular tunnel
I’m not a geopolitical analyst but I’ve been listening to lots of podcasts regarding the war that has been running for more than 3 weeks now. So I wanted to put something down in writing as a personal note. Take this with a huge grain of salt.
What are the goals of the participants?
1. For the US, the goal has been shifting and has not been clearly conveyed. I’ve read articles and podcasts saying essentially, Israel wanted to attack Iran with or without the participation of the US. The US sees that with such an attack, US interests in the region will certainly be attacked in retaliation from Iran, therefore it’s better to attack first. The US strategy was seemingly relatively straightforward- hit the leadership of Iran and hope that opposition will soon rise up and take over the regime, resulting a quick win. The fact that there was a huge protest and civil unrest in Iran in Jan of 2026, and that the US has successfully taken out Venezuelan president probably added to Trump’s confidence.
2. For Israel, the goal was perhaps a complete regime change such that Iran cannot threaten Israel in the future in any shape or form. They certainly cannot have nuclear weapons. To Israel, this war is more existential than the US, since Iran can pose a real threat to Israel, and did fund the terrorist attack in October 2023.
3. For Iran, the war is also very existential. The US-Israel coalition has vastly superior military and intelligence capabilities, as demonstrated both in the 12-day war last summer and also in the first few days of the current war. Iran wanted strong guarantee that they will not be attacked in the future in any shape or form, and they will not be deceived again by US peace talks and deals that simply became null and void.
4. For GCC like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain, their goal is very simple. Stop the war no matter what because it’s their entire lifeline, both in the form of petroleum production and export and also in tourism and banking and the mirage of a safe haven, which is currently being torn to shreds.
How could the current war end?
The seemingly easiest end to the war is that Trump simply announces that the US has won and pulls out. The strait of Hormuz will be de-facto controlled by Iran. Israel cannot accept this ending as it means their strategic goal has failed. So they will keep attacking Iran even without US help, which could take the form of, potentially, as touted by some analysts, using nuclear weapons. If this happens, the pressure will be on the Russian and also on other nuclear capable countries, in terms of how to respond to such a first strike of nuclear weapons. The prognosis looks bleak in this scenario.
The alternate scenario is what seems to be happening right now. Escalate to de-escalate. The US and Israel continue bombing of Iran and potentially sends ground troops to capture strategic islands to ensure safe passage of the strait of Hormuz. In this scenario, as threated by Iran, there will likely be further damage to infrastructure and oil production facilities, perhaps to the point of so much destruction of oil production capacity that the closing of the strait of Hormuz won’t even matter. In this scenario, the global economy will take a huge hit in the form of a supply shock and demand destruction.
The key conflict here is really between Israel and Iran, where both have the goal of complete destruction of the other so that there will be no more threat, and both somewhat have the means to do so -Iran in the form of missiles and drones while Israel with missiles and air dominance.
The US is effectively stuck in this situation, in a war that the people don’t really want and even the administration probably no longer wants at this point. But the problem is that it’s no longer something that the US can TACO on. Both Israel and Iran have the incentive to drag this on. But for the US, the longer this drags on, the bleaker it will be for GOP and Trump in the mid-term election. And the longer it drags on, the higher the risk of a collapse of the petro-dollar and US hegemony, as seen in the Iranian demand that US move its presence out of the middle east and granting safe passage of tankers with oil settling in CNY.
How likely then is the escalate to de-escalate going to work? Personally, I’m rather pessimistic in the prognosis, simply because there is little possibility and room for talks between Israel and Iran.
Either way, the GCC are completely screwed. The US has also taken a large hit in this, in the sense that its weakness in maintaining and enforcing the world order has been shown. It is also further widening the rift domestically in the US and also adding to the pressure for the US to perhaps withdraw its global presence, therefore contributing to the potential fall of the US hegemony. The world economy will also likely be substantially hit either way.
The Ephemeral Tourist
March 23rd. 2026 @ 12:09am CDT
The Ephemeral Tourist 