This serves as a recap for myself and is not to be viewed as any kind of trade suggestion. All views expressed are my own.
Quick update before I go to bed as price made a lower low and lower high day following last Friday’s bull trend bar, potentially marking a local top.
To confirm this local top, price needs to continue making lower highs. If price made a bounce attempt tomorrow but was unable to close above today’s high then it adds to confidence that we can see a pullback. Otherwise, it could be that price just enters into a chop range.
If we did get a pullback, the likely target will be prior high back in Feb which is around 6150 SPX and also the 21 EMA just below that at around 6100 SPX. If it gets deep then we could be looking at lower such as 6000 or 5860 but we’ll see when we get there.
The confluence probably favors a pullback, given the strong consecutive rally price made over the past 2 weeks and overall over the past 2 months. But there might be an abundance of dip buyers who missed the rally waiting to get in, along with those who entered early and are looking to take profit.
This suggests a potential back and forth and fake moves around this level, barring a significant risk event that quickly shifts consensus. We could see that in the form of renewed tariff threats.
My bias currently would be to sell any immediate rallies around here to target at least the 21 EMA with a reaction expected there. I will be aware of potential fake breakouts that looks to be resuming the trend but will be looking for follow-through of such moves to determine if it’s resuming.
If this top confirms and price rolls over below the prior high breakout, then it could mark a major shift and double top on a higher timeframe.
The Ephemeral Tourist
July 7th. 2025 @ 11:46pm CST
The Ephemeral Tourist 