A simple recap
I had some slack over the holiday weekend. This write up is done on 7/6 but is for the first week of July.
What I’m watching
Broadly speaking the same stuff as last week, namely: how is SOXX going from here?
After Thursday’s sell-off, over the weekend there were some research reports from banks saying that dip buying is on the ready again and that it has been profitable to be buying dips in the chips and memory stocks over the past few months.
The question is: how strong is that dip-buying habit? Are large institutions going to be on board with this as well, or will they look to retail as exit liquidity?
Technically, SOXX is at an interesting inflection point of 20 day EMA level. If it is able to close above it then it might persuade more people to be buying the dip again.
After hours today, Samsung released preliminary earnings which the market was not reacting well to. This could be again a sell the news moment.
Additionally, SK Hynix will have ADR trading on Nasdaq on the 10th this week under ticker SKHY. These 2 events and the market reaction will be important indicators to see if institutions will be selling the news.
A position or thesis
Entered IGV today 7/6. Working this mainly as a loose tactical pair with SOXS, positioning for a rotation out of the high flying chips back to potentially unloved and heavily beaten down stuff of the first half of 2026.
Additionally, if AI isn’t fully able to replace software companies completely, then it could be argued that they are the ones that will benefit from the AI utilization.
What I got wrong or updated
In a sense, I probably should’ve taken off some of the SOXS last week, because of the leveraged nature of the instrument. High volatility in the SOXX reference will cause considerable volatility churn.
20260705 9:28PM CDT
The Ephemeral Tourist 